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Reality Check: Wie verlässlich sind unsere Prognosen zu Trends und Zukunft?

Reality Check: How Reliable Are Our Predictions About Trends and the Future?


We futurists and strategy consultants are often rightly asked if the trends forecasted by us in the past have actually come about in future years. And, in fact: Our own evaluation of the quality of our prognoses shows that most developments that we have predicted have actually arrived somewhat faster than anticipated.

 

Scientifically based future studies lead to reliable trend predictions 

 

This is the result of our strict adherence to scientific future-studies methods. None of the trends in our Prognoses were dreamed up by our team. On the contrary: Even with trends that are already evident, we wait until the "tipping point," the point at which our Studies show that the major corporations with significant resources have started to actually invest in a given trend. Only then does the trend find its way into our 2b AHEAD Picture of the Future.

 

 

A Selection of Our Predictions and Fulfillment Status

Selbstfahrende Autos

24.11.2015 "Self-driving cars"

Fulfillment status today: 75%

Omnichannel Management der Zukunft

14.01.2015 "Omnichannel customer dialogue will lead to adaptive products"

Fulfillment status today: 10%

Die adaptive Stadt der Zukunft

19.11.2014 "The cities of the future will be adaptive"

Fulfillment status today: 25%

Datenschutz wird ersetzt durch Privacy-by-design

21.10.2014 "Data protection will be replaced through privacy-by-design"

Fulfillment status today: 10%

Versicherer werden zu digitalen Risikocoaches

29.05.2014 "Insurers will become digital risk coaches"

Fulfillment status today: 10%

So leben wir in der Zukunft

19.06.2013 "Intelligent digital executive assistants"

Fulfillment status today: 

3D-Druck verändert tradierte Branchen

22.05.2013 "3D printing will change traditional industries"

Fulfillment status today: 50%

Social Freezing

13.05.2013 "Social Freezing"

Fulfillment status today: 33%

So leben wir in der Zukunft

22.03.2013 "The dawn of the full employment era"

Fulfillment status today:

So leben wir in der Zukunft

31.01.2009 "Brainfood will become a normality"

Fulfillment status today: 50%

TV wird individuell, etablierte Sender verlieren

22.02.2007 "TV will become personalized. Established networks will be the losers"

Fulfillment status today: 100%

Auflösung der gesellschaftlichen Mitte

22.03.2006 "The disappearance of the middle class"

Fulfillment status today: 80%

Major-Labels verlieren Hälfte des Geschäfts

01.01.2003 "Major music labels will lost half of their business"

Fulfillment status today: 100%

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