Reality Check: How Reliable Are Our Predictions About Trends and the Future?
We futurists and strategy consultants are often rightly asked if the trends forecasted by us in the past have actually come about in future years. And, in fact: Our own evaluation of the quality of our prognoses shows that most developments that we have predicted have actually arrived somewhat faster than anticipated.
Scientifically based future studies lead to reliable trend predictions
This is the result of our strict adherence to scientific future-studies methods. None of the trends in our Prognoses were dreamed up by our team. On the contrary: Even with trends that are already evident, we wait until the "tipping point," the point at which our Studies show that the major corporations with significant resources have started to actually invest in a given trend. Only then does the trend find its way into our 2b AHEAD Picture of the Future.
A Selection of Our Predictions and Fulfillment Status
24.11.2015 "Self-driving cars"
Fulfillment status today: 75%
14.01.2015 "Omnichannel customer dialogue will lead to adaptive products"
Fulfillment status today: 10%
19.11.2014 "The cities of the future will be adaptive"
Fulfillment status today: 25%
21.10.2014 "Data protection will be replaced through privacy-by-design"
Fulfillment status today: 10%
29.05.2014 "Insurers will become digital risk coaches"
Fulfillment status today: 10%
19.06.2013 "Intelligent digital executive assistants"
Fulfillment status today:
22.05.2013 "3D printing will change traditional industries"
Fulfillment status today: 50%
13.05.2013 "Social Freezing"
Fulfillment status today: 33%
22.03.2013 "The dawn of the full employment era"
Fulfillment status today:
31.01.2009 "Brainfood will become a normality"
Fulfillment status today: 50%
22.02.2007 "TV will become personalized. Established networks will be the losers"
Fulfillment status today: 100%
22.03.2006 "The disappearance of the middle class"
Fulfillment status today: 80%
01.01.2003 "Major music labels will lost half of their business"
Fulfillment status today: 100%